Risk Reward

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Risk Reward

            A few months ago, I had the opportunity to observe a focus group that was reviewing several new table games.   My area of expertise is the math and some of the technical constructs of a game.  I have to admit that if I have any weakness in game design it is in getting inside other Player's heads to see the game the way they do.  I like games that require you to think.  As soon as I sit down to play a new game, the math concepts of the game start going through my head and I try to figure out what the strategy is and/or how I would go about analyzing the game to get to that strategy.  In other words, my thought patterns about a new game are probably very different from the average Player.

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Bankroll Shenanigans

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            The number of friends that I have here in Las Vegas who have been asked which casino they live in is astounding.  I live in the suburbs of Las Vegas and not particularly close to a casino.  There are a couple of 'locals' casinos about 3-4 miles from my house.  I've made no secret of the fact that I don't go to the casinos very often to actually play.  To me, playing is a form of entertainment.  When I used to vacation in Las Vegas, I would play far more often than I do now that I live here.  Living here, I do as most of the rest of you do in an average day.  I do my work.  I go shopping.  I do yard work.  I fix things that have broken in the house.  In the evenings, we do family dinner, watch some television and read stories to our son. 

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Walking a Tightrope Blindfolded

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Walking a Tightrope Blindfolded

           A few months ago, Nik Walenda walked across a tightrope between two Chicago skyscrapers blindfolded.   I'm not all that impressed.  I think he should try analyzing casino games for a living.  Most days it seems a lot like walking a tightrope blindfolded too.  Only, if I mess up, I don't just hurt myself.  I might cause a casino to lose a lot of money if I allow a game to hit the floor with a Player advantage.  After more than 10 years in the industry, I've never done it, but I have heard cases where it did happen due to a math mistake.

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How Often Do You Razgu?

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          How often do you throw away all five cards in video poker?  The question is NOT how often SHOULD you, but how often do you really do it?  Players don't like to lose when gambling.  As a result, many do everything they can to hold it off as long as possible.  In blackjack, many Players don't like to hit a 16 into a Face Card.  They don't want to bust.  They'd rather wait the extra few seconds and have the Dealer beat them.  In Three Card Poker, about the only way you can really hurt yourself is to NOT Fold when you are supposed to.  But this is the biggest single mistake made by Players.

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What is Your Favorite Strategy?

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What is Your Favorite Strategy?

             I came across something on Facebook recently about Three Card Poker.  It asked "what is your favorite strategy?"  This is a question that I think is better asked of Black Friday.  I know that I always look at the ads in the paper on Thanksgiving Day and then plot out which ones are the best to go after on Friday taking into account the quality of the sale and the likelihood of not having to run people over (or get run over!) to get the item.  What type of question is this to ask about a casino game?

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Sequentially Speaking

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Sequentially Speaking

           In my office, there hangs a plexiglass sign that comes from an older style video poker machine.   Essentially it states that if you get a Royal in sequence (either direction) it pays Triple with maximum coins bet.  When you consider the fact that any 5 cards can appear in 240 unique sequences and that they are willing to pay you 3x if you get either one of two of them, the offer is a bit less generous than it sounds.  Of course, like anything in video poker, the more you pay for it, the more often you can make it occur.  But I'll get to that in a second.

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Introduction to Strategy Tables

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Introduction to Strategy Tables

   In last week's column, I explained how a bit about the 32 different ways that a video poker hand can be played.  This accounts for all the different ways a Player can discard 0 to 5 cards from a five card deal.  Each of these 32 ways is assigned an expected value by looking at every possible draw for that discard combination.  Whichever of these 32 ways has the highest expected value is the right way to play the hand.

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The Crusade

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The Crusade

            This is probably going to blow my mind more than it will yours.  I began writing video poker columns more than 11 years ago.  I'm not sure of the exact number of columns I've written but it has been roughly around 600 of them.  It's a staggering number to me.  I didn't know that I could come up with that many topics!  Of course, I do repeat some, realizing that the nature of a gaming magazine is that many of the readers will pick up a copy while they are in the casino and may not see another until their next trip.  Today is one of those weeks where I'm going back to the beginning.

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Back to Baccarat

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Back to Baccarat

           My column a few weeks ago about commission-free Baccarat and commission-free Pai Gow Poker prompted a reader to send me an e-mail asking for advice on how to improve his play at Baccarat.  The simple reality is that I could not provide him with any advice.  Baccarat has no strategy.  Sometimes when I say that, it means that there is sort of no strategy.  For example, in Casino War, the only choice the Player can make is whether to go to war when the Player and Dealer card tie.  Mathematically, the Player should always go to war, so in essence there is no strategy.  The Player IS given a choice of what to do, but the choice is always the same, so is there really any strategy?  I'll leave that to the philosophers and people who wonder about trees falling in the forest.

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The Commish

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The Commish

            Despite being around casinos since I was about 14 years old, I have to admit that it was only the past decade or so that I learned anything about Pai Gow Poker and Baccarat.  All I knew about Baccarat was that James Bond seemed to like to play it and apparently you play it for a lot of money.  With 007 playing it, I always assumed it was a game a lot like blackjack which relied on a good deal of strategy and potentially card counting, which would be why the suave super spy loved it so much.  Little did I know that it is a game of essentially no strategy, albeit there are some similarities to blackjack.

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Thrill Ride

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Thrill Ride

           What does the word volatility mean to you?  You might think of a person that is volatile, meaning they might be a bit hot tempered or prone to make rash decisions.  Maybe you'd think of a chemical that is volatile meaning that it might explode at any moment.  Basically, volatile doesn't tend to conjure up something positive.  When it comes to gambling, volatility means something a bit different, although there are some similarities.  In gambling, volatility means about the same as it does with stock investing.  You better expect some big ups and downs.  This isn't necessarily a negative, but you do have to be prepared for it.

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Tips for Inventors

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Tips for Inventors

 When I decided to go into gaming analysis more than a decade ago, I did my best to tell prospective clients that I wasn't just "the math guy", but rather a true consultant.   I'm now in my late 40's, and I started doing this professionally in my mid 30's.  But, I've been doing this for 'fun' for over 30 years.  It started by programming the high school computer to analyze blackjack.  I started going to Atlantic City casino (with my parents) when I was in my mid teens.  They bought me a fake ID so that I could get in without issue.  My first trip to Las Vegas was when I was 18.  Hopefully the statue of limitations has run out on these offenses.

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It Is All Relative

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It Is All Relative

           When I tell people that I do gaming math for casinos, the usual first question is "you mean slots?".  I've actually never done math for a slot machine.  While I'm sure there are aspects of slot math that make it more straight forward than it might seem, I have heard people refer to slot math as a proven product.  I mean there is really nothing that stops a slot company from taking a proven machine based on one theme and merely change the theme leaving virtually all of the math elements the same.  Further, slot mathematicians have a clear advantage over table games.  They can make up all the frequencies.  If they want a particular combination to occur 1.2345787674% of the time, they just make it happen.  With table games (which are predominately cards), we're stuck with whatever probabilities the random occurrences bring us.

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Millionaire Maker

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Millionaire Maker

            If you were to walk through a casino about 20 years ago, your choices would be a bit more meager than today.  The casino would still be split between 'slots' and 'table games', but what you would find on each side would be vastly different from the 21st century.  You will find video poker on the slot side, but not nearly as prolific as it would become.  Of course, the slot side would be filled with mostly mechanical slots and video poker machines that play a single denomination and a single version of the game. 

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Fish Story

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Fish Story

            This week's mailbag included an excellent question about Double Double Bonus video poker.  My reader wanted to know that if you are dealt a Full House consisting of three 2's, 3's or 4's, how much are you giving up to go for the big payday (Quads with the A\2\3\4 Kicker) vs. just keeping the Full House.  I know that when I'm playing and this happens there is definitely a part of me that wants to go for the big payday.  Depending on the order of the dealt cards, I'm almost disappointed that a Full House formed instead of just a Three of a Kind.

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Rain Main

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Rain Main

            Too many Players play casino games by the seat of their pants.  This consists of two significant problems.  First, Players play hunches.  I have a 14 in blackjack and the Dealer has an 8.  What do I THINK the next card will be?  If you're counting and have a true sense that the next card's value is not quite as random as a freshly shuffled deck, then this concept might be okay.  If you just THINK the next card is a 10/Face and choose not to hit, then you are doing nothing more than guessing and not playing the proper odds to increase your chances of winning.

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Mom, Where Do Royals Come From?

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Mom, Where Do Royals Come From?

            In last week's column I discussed Four of a Kinds and the probabilities of drawing one from a Pair vs. drawing one from Trips.  It's interesting stuff, but not necessarily overly useful.  We very rarely throw away a Pair to go for Quads.  If you have a 4-Card Flush, a 3-Card Royal or the rare - J-Q-K-A you would do so.  But not a lot of thought needs to go into playing Pairs.

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Get Your Quads

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            This week's topic comes courtesy of my own experiences this past summer.  My son was visiting from the East Coast for a couple of weeks.  This means some time spent on a video poker machine, in between shooting pool, bowling and some movies.  I had one of those frustrating nights that could've been so much better "if only".  I like to play Double Double Bonus Poker if I'm out playing for a short period of time.  In all honesty, it's not the best play, but if you're looking for a quick significant profit, Double Double offers this opportunity.  But, you have to get Four of a Kinds and preferably Quad A's, 2's, 3's or 4's.  If you get really lucky, you'll pull the right kicker and have a big payout!

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Dumb "Luck"

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Dumb "Luck"

           This past week, a friend sent me an e-mail along with a link to an article about a woman who has been seemingly making a habit of winning large prizes in scratch off lotteries.  I tend to be very skeptical of these types of articles.   The internet isn't always the best place to find credible information.  Some of you might recall a column I wrote several months ago about how one writer noted that a disproportionate number of winning multi-state lottery tickets were being sold in one state.  This 'analysis' didn't take into account the total number of tickets sold.  It shouldn't be much of a surprise if more winning tickets were sold in Pennsylvania vs. Rhode Island given that many more tickets are presumably sold in Pennsylvania.

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